Curse

Daesu · Jan 24, 2012, 09:49 PM // 21:49

With the annoucement of GW2 to be released soon this year, with open beta coming April, I expect some economic disruption for GW1 once this news sinks in.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/tec...12_655976.html

I expect items that are tied to obtaining HoM points to go up in value relative to items that are not.

What do you think?

Items that would probably go up in value soon
=============================
- undedicated mini pets
- ectos and shards for those who still do not have obby armor
- rubbies and sapphires for vabbian armor
- ambers and jades for elite faction armor
- some crafting materials
- zkeys
- hero armors
- destroyer/oppressor weapons
- torment gemstones, ambraces, and uncustomized torment weapons
- elite skill tomes
- party/alcohol/sweets items

Rare skins would probably drop in value and things that have no HoM bearing like diessa chalice and rin relics.

You can continue to sit on your full stash of GW1 gold or you can move your GW1 assets into GW2 through your HoM.

Title Slave · Jan 24, 2012, 09:54 PM // 21:54

I highly doubt it. The whole HoM hype is long gone. Most of us already have sufficient points stacked up by now.

And don't forget. When the demand is high, more people will start farming the needed items therefore nullifying any major effects.

Daesu · Jan 24, 2012, 09:59 PM // 21:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Title Slave

I highly doubt it. The whole HoM hype is long gone. Most of us already have sufficient points stacked up by now.

And don't forget. When the demand is high, more people will start farming the needed items therefore nullifying any major effects.

Many of these items are already being highly farmed (e.g. ectos and shards).

If you look around, go to any random few people in the game and check their HoM status by typing their in-game names into: http://hom.guildwars2.com/en/#page=welcome

...you would realize that most people do not have a 50/50 HoM yet and many don't even have a 30/50.

I think many people are just taking it easy at the moment, since ANet has only very recently announced about GW2 release.

Spiritz · Jan 24, 2012, 10:02 PM // 22:02

Zkeys i doubt will rise in price - heck they are easy to get.
party etc usualy falls in price when events are on that contains some form of related items.
Ambraces have been sort of stable for quite a while now .
Infact everything on your list is basically "Supply and Demand"

Star_Jewel · Jan 24, 2012, 10:05 PM // 22:05

There may be a slight price bubble due to the impending release of GW2, but shortly after I'd expect there to be a burst as people massively migrate to the hot new thing. Those who hang around in GW1, what do they have left to do but farm crap? I'd imagine there will still be slight demand from new GW2 players seeing what GW1 is all about, but I suspect supply will more than meet demand after a short while and prices will decline.

Kunder · Jan 24, 2012, 10:08 PM // 22:08

This all highly depends on whether it turns out that the HoM stuff is actually worthwhile. It could be the case that better items can be found very easily or that the skins aren't very unique, in which case the market goes the opposite direction.

I also doubt that the more expensive ways of getting titles are going to be seeing much of a change at all, as most players who still haven't maxed HoM are probably only going to care about 30/50 and will not need any of the expensive items.

Daesu · Jan 24, 2012, 10:09 PM // 22:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kunder

This all highly depends on whether it turns out that the HoM stuff is actually worthwhile. It could be the case that better items can be found very easily or that the skins aren't very unique, in which case the market goes the opposite direction.

I know, but currently they are the ONLY confirmed means of transferring any GW1 assets into GW2.

Having some GW2 assets to start with is still better than having zero GW2 assets when the game is released.

About the titles, if they can sacrifice some GW1 gold for GW2 titles why not? If they are going to migrate to GW2 anyway, that would make sense.

Mintha Syl · Jan 24, 2012, 10:25 PM // 22:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

...you would realize that most people do not have a 50/50 HoM yet and many don't even have a 30/50.

I think many people are just taking it easy at the moment, since ANet has only very recently announced about GW2 release.

what you don't take into account here is that many don't care about HoM, and so you can't count everybody who doesn't have it full as people putting lot of money into economy to buy stuff to fill it. Also, it's not said that people willing to fill it are missing the buyable stuff, some could be just missing timey titles rather than money ones.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Star_Jewel

Those who hang around in GW1, what do they have left to do but farm crap?

Errrr...playing the actual game?

Anyway, I guess we can't do predictions at all on what's gonna happen.

StormDragonZ · Jan 24, 2012, 10:32 PM // 22:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

with open beta coming April

Say what? When did this become water cooler knowledge?

As for an inflation of prices, I say let it happen. I have nothing left worth buying unless I feel like getting cosmetic enhancements for some bizarre reason... or new armor...

Daesu · Jan 24, 2012, 11:31 PM // 23:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mintha Syl

what you don't take into account here is that many don't care about HoM, and so you can't count everybody who doesn't have it full as people putting lot of money into economy to buy stuff to fill it. Also, it's not said that people willing to fill it are missing the buyable stuff, some could be just missing timey titles rather than money ones.

True that many of them who have like 49/50 are only missing the title stuff, but most of them who are <49 are missing the buyable stuff (e.g. minipets) besides the title stuff.

How do I know? Check out their HoM status in http://hom.guildwars2.com/en/#page=welcome

Of course, I have no way of churning through the HoM status of ALL players, but doing random checks in the game gives me a rough indication.

Quote:

Originally Posted by StormDragonZ

Say what? When did this become water cooler knowledge?

As for an inflation of prices, I say let it happen. I have nothing left worth buying unless I feel like getting cosmetic enhancements for some bizarre reason... or new armor...

Ever since articles like this was posted yesterday.

MisterB · Jan 24, 2012, 11:33 PM // 23:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by StormDragonZ

Say what? When did this become water cooler knowledge?

http://www.arena.net/blog/dragon

It doesn't necessarily mean that the open beta will be open to everyone.

Martin Alvito · Jan 25, 2012, 12:43 AM // 00:43

Predictable changes are predictable.

In other words, these effects are already built into current prices. There may be a panic at the last minute (right before GW2 release) if demand badly outstrips supply. If not, prices will fall rather than rise.

Star_Jewel · Jan 25, 2012, 12:44 AM // 00:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mintha Syl

Errrr...playing the actual game?

I was talking more about the people who have already taken several characters through the quests/missions/Beyond stuff and for whatever reason have no interest in GW2. Except for events or shooting the sh*t in GToB or Shing Shea, what else will they do? The z-keys, ecto/shards, etc. they either farm or casually bring into the economy by "playing the game" will I'm sure be enough to meet the diminished demand.

turbo234 · Jan 25, 2012, 12:48 AM // 00:48

"around" april. not specifically in april. anet said a couple months. that could be march, april, may etc. it's not a set in stone thing yet since they didn't give an actual date.

Shayne Hawke · Jan 25, 2012, 01:26 AM // 01:26

I got my whole HoM sorted out about a month after it was announced what all was needed. If there's going to be an economic disruption, I won't be feeling it.

Swingline · Jan 25, 2012, 01:37 AM // 01:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shayne Hawke

I got my whole HoM sorted out about a month after it was announced what all was needed. If there's going to be an economic disruption, I won't be feeling it.

We already know all you care about is yourself.

There probably will be a disruption but it wont be as big as it was when HoM was first released.

BrettM · Jan 25, 2012, 02:01 AM // 02:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Having some GW2 assets to start with is still better than having zero GW2 assets when the game is released.

The HoM rewards can't be sold and the armor/weapons have little, if any, statistical advantage over GW2 starter gear, so how are they "assets"? None of the rewards makes you either wealthier or stronger.

mrmango · Jan 25, 2012, 02:50 AM // 02:50

I won't really care, I need a few more points here and there and I would enjoy cheaper prices for booze if that ever happens. I'll move to GW2 permanently in time, of course.

Daesu · Jan 25, 2012, 04:59 AM // 04:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrettM

The HoM rewards can't be sold and the armor/weapons have little, if any, statistical advantage over GW2 starter gear, so how are they "assets"? None of the rewards makes you either wealthier or stronger.

Perhaps but if certain "skins" are more desirable in the game than the default "starter gear", wouldn't you prefer them over the starter gear?

Most people would be thinking if they would even want to return to a 7 (or older)-year old GW1 after starting to play GW2 then. As long as they still have their characters in GW1, they can always re-earn the gold if needed and their characters would still be playable if they feel like playing GW1 sometimes.

The question we are addressing is, whether players would invest current GW1 gold now for better starter gear and titles for GW2 in the very near future. I think that answer would be "yes" for most players who would be migrating to GW2 from GW1.

Swingline · Jan 25, 2012, 07:37 AM // 07:37

The HoM is just a way for Anet to give out free gear to GW1 players for sticking around during GW1 end days. All the rewards are pretty much for cosmetic purposes. Some gear may give a slight advantage but its not like the people with that small advantage didn't work for it.